Dec 3, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) throws the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the fourth quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
I have a group of a dozen high school friends that still texts one another in a chat group.
Yeah, we're all north of 50 at this point. At some point later this year, we'll get together for our 35th high school reunion. But on the first Sunday of 2026, we were blowing up each other's phones thanks to the Eagles losing the regular season finale, 24-17 to Washington.
One would think that with age comes wisdom. That with time comes perspective.
But then I have to remember, these are (mostly) Philadelphia sports fans. Sometimes, things like logic, common sense, and yes, wisdom and perspective, are left out in the cold.
The text exchange, in part, went like this:
Old Man 1: Nice job foregoing a chance at a second home playoff game. Sirianni is a moron.
(This text got three different thumbs up emojis.)
Old Man 2: 100!! He didn't have to start the offense. Just put Coop, Quinyon and Blankenship in because that secondary was atrocious.
Old Man 3: Thoughts on their chances against the Niners?
Old Man 2: The Niners are completely demoralized. They had home field advantage in their grasp and choked. They can't win three on the road.
Old Man 3: I'm just asking about next week.
Old Man 2: They don't want to play here.
Old Man 4: Or angry. We need someone to take it out on and the Eagles are the perfect matchup. You're terrible offense vs. our terrible defense and our good offense against your good defense.
(Note: Old Man 4 is a Niners fan)
Old Man 2: We need to jump on them early. They'll fold.
It was at this point, after my phone wouldn't stop chirping at me, that I decided I needed to intervene. That I needed to offer some of that perspective.
I gave them a long text message that was basically the argument I made last week about Sirianni doing the right thing by benching his starters. No need to make you read the whole thing. Unless you really want to, in which case you can read the story here.
But I added one more thing.
Old Man 5 (Me): If Green Bay beats Chicago, which is really possible, then you get that second home game - if you win.
They weren't having it.
Old Man 2: Disagree. GB is getting bounced. They're too injured. That's why getting that second home game was key.
Old Man 3: Eagles are minus-3.
(Yeah, some of them are degenerates, too).
Old Man 1: Somewhat agree on resting some of the guys that may have really needed it, but not with what could have happened. It almost certainly would have happened if he started the secondary. Playing at the Linc is a big advantage.
Old Man 3: The OL has taken a few weeks off already. They should be fired up.
(Old Man 3 thinks he's got a drummer who walks around with him to play a rim shot after several of his texts. I get snarky commentary from him all Phillies season long as well).
Old Man 1: I probably would have rather had GB in the first round.
Old Man 5 (Me): Green Bay has a far better defense than San Francisco.
Old Man 1 then decides to send out the following meme:
Old Man 1: Herm knows.
The conversation went on from there, but I decided not to engage further, mostly because, I had to write this post. But I figured if what I wanted to say next was sent to the group, even the seven guys who didn't chime in would have responded by calling me an imbecile, or worse.
What would I have said?
I would have said that of the possible opponents the Eagles could have played, the one that was the best matchup for them was the San Francisco 49ers.
Yes. Even more so than the Packers.
Hear me out.
First, I think we all agree that either Seattle or the Rams would have been tougher than both the Niners or Packers. So, I don't need to go into a deep explanation there.
And yes, the Packers have lost four straight to limp into the playoffs, and not having Micah Parsons certainly weakens their defense, which one of them would argue negates the crux of my argument that I'm about to present. I just want to say I acknowledge that.
But there's no doubt that the Eagles offense has struggled against good defenses this season. Heck, they've struggled against middle of the pack defenses this season, too.
They scored all of 10 points against the Packers earlier this season.
So, if you looked at their potential opponents heading into the weekend, Seattle had the No. 2 ranked defense in the NFL. The Rams No. 9. The Packers, No. 11.
The 49ers are all the way down at No. 16.
Now, let's consider the way the Eagles prefer to play offense.
They prefer to be run first, run often. We've already pointed out how much they struggle when Jalen Hurts has to throw the ball a lot.
The 49ers are missing a lot on defense. They played most of the year without either Nick Bosa or Fred Warner, their two best defensive players, but they lost three more linebackers — Dee Winters, Tatum Bethune and Luke Gifford — in Saturday's game against Seattle.
With the linebacker corps decimated, the Seahawks ran the ball against them 39 times for 180 yards.
Touchdown Zach Charbonnet pic.twitter.com/kkczRlCqe2
Not only did Seattle find success in running the ball, but also controlling the clock. Seattle had the ball nearly 38 minutes while the 49ers had it just a hair over 22 minutes.
And when you can control the ball and limit the other's team's time of possession, you're in a better position to both score and win games.
We already know the Eagles are risk averse, and will protect the football at all costs — even if it means their offense is less dynamic.
Which means their vanilla approach would be a concern against high powered defenses like Seattle, L.A. or even Green Bay, which already stifled the Eagles once this season, despite the Birds winning the game.
The 49ers pose no similarly conceivable threat defensively — even if some of those linebackers are available next week.
This doesn't mean the Eagles are going to move the ball at will. They won't. Their offense isn't dynamic enough for that. But they'll move it better against San Francisco than any other possible opponent in the NFC — and that should make enough of a difference.
Because even though the 49ers offense was humming until Week 18 — and the excuse being made is they were without surefire Hall of Fame tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall in the game — the offense revolves around a quarterback in Brock Purdy who is a bit of a gambler when he throws and a running back in Christian McCaffery, who will certainly be the focus of the Eagles defensive scheme, much like he was by the Seahawks, who held him to his worst output of the season (8 rushes, 23 yards).
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) hands the ball to running back Christian McCaffrey (23) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field.
Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Seattle shut them down completely, as the 49ers scored just three points in a No. 1 seed-determining game, at home.
San Francisco finished 12-5, which is a better record than the Eagles, but it's a bit deceiving. They played their toughest opponents in the first 10 weeks and the final two, but had a very soft middle.
The Niners started just 6-4 with losses to Jacksonville, Tampa, Houston and the Rams.
They then reeled off six straight wins before losing to Seattle. Only a win against Chicago in Week 17 came against a winning team during that stretch.
San Francisco was buoyed by a 9-1 record this season against teams with a losing record. In their five losses, the Niners averaged just 16.8 points per game. In their 12 wins, they averaged 29.4 points per game.
Do you see the correlation between beating up on bad teams and struggling against good teams?
The Eagles defense is superb. Don't expect the high-octane 49ers against the Eagles.
This isn't to say that the Packers offense would be any better, but the Packers defense is superior, and they can take advantage of the Eagles offensive flaws far better than the 49ers can.
For all the people who think the Packers would have been a better draw, they're only a 1 1/2 point underdog in Chicago.
The Packers rested their starters in Week 18, too — like the Eagles. It's as if they had a bye. Meanwhile, the Bears played their regulars trying to secure a No. 2 seed, which they did, but not because they played well. They lost to the Lions.
A rested Packers team, with a better defense, would have been an opponent with more pitfalls for the Eagles than the 49ers, who understandably played their guys, and well, got some banged up against the Seahawks while they were at it.
Here’s that Brock Purdy hit. pic.twitter.com/aEQxo0vnUz
The Eagles offense might be as bad as it looked to us all in the second half of the season, but they'll only need about 20 points to be able to win a playoff game. That seems doable, now. It wouldn't have if they were playing the Packers.
I don't want this to sound as if this is a slam dunk. San Francisco isn't a pushover. They've got some talent and they'll give the Eagles a game. Both Williams and Pearsall are expected back, so the offense will be more dynamic.
It's too early for predictions, but this does come across as a one-score game to me.
The key will be how much the Eagles offense can actually produce. I would have screamed warnings from the rooftops about any other matchup on that front other than the 49ers.
It's not nearly as much of a concern now.
And rather than type all that in a too long, didn't read text to a bunch of curmudgeonly, graying/balding, coots, I'll just send them a link to this story.
But now you know, too.
