Image credit: Shutterstock
Traders can now place real-money bets on the fallout of Silicon Valley’s AI shift. Here's how.
As major tech firms double down on artificial intelligence, they’re shedding thousands of workers in the process. Although now, for the first time, you can bet on just how deep the layoffs will go.
Trade on tech layoff prediction markets at Kalshi today.
On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, a contract titled “Tech layoffs up in April 2025?” lets users wager on whether the U.S. tech sector’s layoff rate exceeded 1.2% in April. The outcome will be determined using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If the rate comes in higher, a “Yes” bet pays out $1; if not, it pays nothing.
The bet reflects growing concerns that come with real money opportunities, tied to a new wave of “AI-first” strategies sweeping the tech industry.
Microsoft recently announced plans to lay off approximately 7,000 employees, about 3% of its workforce, citing a strategic pivot towards AI integration. The layoffs primarily affect software engineers and management roles, reflecting the company's efforts to streamline operations.
Similarly, cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike revealed it would cut 5% of its staff, attributing the decision to increased efficiencies from AI adoption.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted AI's potential to perform tasks traditionally handled by mid-level engineers, suggesting a future where leaner teams could achieve more with AI assistance.
Kalshi, approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is a financial platform where users can trade “event contracts.” Essentially traders can place wagers on the outcomes of real-world events. These markets function similarly to options trading but are framed as binary outcomes: Yes or No.
If you think layoffs in the information sector exceeded 1.2% in April, you can buy a “Yes” contract for $0.70 (as of May 15). If you're right, each contract pays $1. If the market resolves to No instead, the Yes contracts are worth zero. The current price reflects crowd consensus: a 70-cent contract implies a probability of around 70% the outcome will take place.
In this case, Kalshi uses monthly layoff data published by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) to determine the result.
Companies are cutting deeper than before. Microsoft and Alphabet have both redirected hiring and resources into AI infrastructure and away from traditional software teams.
Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen recently told The Economic Times, “People who use AI will replace people who don't use AI, just like people who used automation or computers probably replaced those who didn’t.” This reflects how some corporate leaders see AI adoption as a requirement, not an option.
If that thinking continues, some experts believe this could be just the beginning of a broader wave of displacement.
Others argue that layoffs tied to AI might be overstated. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said at the Milken Institute, “If you’re not going to lose your job to AI, you’ll lose it to someone using AI better than you.”
Additionally, broader employment figures in tech have remained stable in recent months, and the information sector added jobs in February and March.
Unlike a poll or analyst forecast, prediction markets like Kalshi reflect real-time shifts in sentiment, with money on the line. Traders may be industry insiders, data analysts, or average citizens with a strong opinion and a small stake. When thousands are participating, the odds begin to mirror consensus expectations.
While the April layoff data won’t be released until later this month, the betting market is already offering a signal, or a hedge opportunity, for what might come next.
Sign up to Kalshi to put real money on your economic predictions.
