From Morgan Wallen to Miley Cyrus to Lorde, traders at Kalshi can put real money on predictions around these artists.
If you love music and feel like it’s a true passion, you can actually turn that passion into real money by trading on prediction markets. Top prediction platforms like Kalshi offer a variety of music prediction markets, including ones for Spotify.
Sign up for Kalshi now to trade Spotify music markets.
For example, you can try to predict your favorite artist's chances of getting more than one million streams on their latest single. With new music coming this May from Morgan Wallen, Miley Cyrus, and so many others, here’s how you can potentially make money off their upcoming albums.
Prediction markets platforms are places where you can trade on the likelihood of something happening. Those in the U.S. can legally trade on Kalshi because it is a CFTC-regulated platform.
Kalshi has almost 50 Spotify markets currently, which all provide opportunities to make a profit from music trading. For example, you can bet on how many streams Wallen’s newest single will receive on Spotify.
If Wallen’s album currently sits at 45% and you think the actual odds are higher, you can buy “yes” shares for 45 cents to increase the overall predicted percentage. If you believe the chances are lower, you can buy “no” shares for 55 cents (in this example) to decrease the overall predicted percentage. If you are correct in your forecast, you will receive one dollar for each share you bought.
Songs to watch for May Spotify markets
May has plenty of new songs and albums coming out that have built up a lot of anticipation among their fans. These are some of the notable songs to watch out for in May so far.
Morgan Wallen’s upcoming album, I’m The Problem, is going to be released on May 16, 2025. As of Apr. 30, 2025, Wallen has released six singles leading up to his fourth studio album: Lies Lies Lies (2024), Love Somebody (2024), Smile (2024), I’m the Problem (2025), Just In Case (2025), and I Ain't Comin' Back with Post Malone (2025).
The album has 37 songs in total, and Kalshi has markets for every song’s streaming numbers on the Tuesday after release, May 20, 2025. In addition, there is a market for how many weeks Ain't Comin' Back' with Post Malone will spend at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100.
Just over two weeks after its release, the latest single has gotten 20 million listens and debuted on the Billboard Hot 100 at No. 8. With a whole album of 37 songs, the rest of the tracks will likely receive significantly fewer streams in the days between their release date and May 20, 2025.
The songs most likely to track better are the ones featuring other artists, including What I Want with Tate McRae, Number 3 and Number 7 with Eric Church, Come Back as a Redneck with Hardy, and The Dealer with Ernest.
Lorde recently announced her latest album, Virgin, which will be released on June 27, 2025. She has already released her lead single from the album, What Was That.
With over a month left until the album’s release, Lorde will likely release another single before the album is dropped. Perhaps this single will be released at the end of May or the beginning of June.
As of Apr. 30, 2025, Kalshi has a market for the number of streams for the lead single. They also have several Billboard markets for whether the lead single will reach No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 (and for how many weeks), as well as whether Lorde will have a No. 1 single or album this year.
Given Wallen’s album has markets for each single, Lorde’s may as well once the track list is revealed. In one week, her lead single garnered 20 million views.
What Was That had the advantage of being her first lead single since 2021. Depending on whether she has other songs that go viral, the 20 million is likely a generous benchmark for the streaming numbers of her upcoming songs.
Ed Sheeran’s second single from his upcoming album will be dropping on Thursday, May 1, 2025. Old Phone will be following his lead single, Azizam, which has over 50 million streams on Spotify in about a month.
There is a market for how many streams Old Phone will have on May 9, 2025. With Sheran, his streaming numbers are likely to be unpredictable because while Azizam has only 50 million streams so far, he has 12 songs with over one billion Spotify streams.
He is a master hitmaker, so his streaming numbers can not be underestimated. Keep track of the streaming numbers and if his song tops any of the daily charts. This can inform you of the pace of the song. You would also be wise to keep tabs on whether the song starts to trend on social media.
Both Joe Jonas and Miley Cyrus have new albums coming out. Jonas’s Music for People Who Believe in Love will be released on May 23, and Cyrus’s Something Beautiful will be released on May 30.
As of Apr. 30, neither artist has Spotify markets on Kalshi. However, Jonas has a market for whether he will earn a No. 1 album this year on the Billboard chart, and so does Cyrus, along with whether she will have a No. 1 hit.
Similar to Lorde’s album, both of these artists may have Kashi markets open for their album tracks once we are closer to the album's release dates.
Cyrus’ lead single, End of the World, has 33 million listens after almost a month of being released. Jonas’s recent single, Heart by Heart, was released last week and has about one million views. Given these numbers, Jonas is unlikely to score massive streaming numbers for his album release, and Cyrus may.
Each Spotify market is different and can be resolved in various ways. There are daily, weekly, and annual markets for Spotify.
Their daily markets are resolved according to the next day’s playlist. The weekly markets are resolved according to the next week’s playlist; and the annual markets, like whether Lorde will score a No. 1 album, will be resolved once she achieves this or the year ends, whichever comes first.
The markets for streaming numbers of specific tracks vary in their resolution dates. For some of these markets, the resolution date is a few days later, while for others, it’s a week later. These dates are crucial to pay attention to, as they will significantly impact the odds, and your forecasts. A one-week time period is considerably more time to gather streams than just a few days.
You should always look at how the artist's previous songs performed. If they released other singles leading up to the album, how did they do on Spotify? Using past trends can help inform your future forecasts.
With such a variety of Spotify markets, they also vary widely in trade volume. The daily Top USA Song prediction market has been open since October of 2024, and has a cumulative trading volume of over $17 million. The Top Global song market is closer to one million. Meanwhile, Top USA Artist is closer to $100,000 and many of the individual tracks markets are in the low thousands.
With the growing popularity and variety of markets, you can bet on the music market you’re most familiar with whether it’s folk, country, pop, or hip-hop. This also allows for plenty of opportunities to make money from music trading. That’s right: You can turn your Spotify obsession into an opportunity by trading these May music markets before they go viral.
Now, rather than just streaming the hits — you can also predict their success at Kalshi.
