U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser is the favorite to win the Republican nomination for Pennsylvania governor
Prediction markets favor Trump ally Dan Meuser to win Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2026
With current Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro up for re-election in 2026, Republicans are currently in the early stages of determining a challenger. Prediction market platforms like Kalshi are presently offering markets to trade on who will be the Republican nominee in the next gubernatorial race. Based on early odds at Kalshi, a clear frontrunner has emerged.
Who Republicans will run in the 2026 Pennsylvania governor’s race isn’t entirely clear yet. But U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser, who has represented Pennsylvania’s 9th congressional district since 2019, is seen as the favorite, not only by pundits, but also by Kalshi traders.
Meuser’s frontrunner status is in part thanks to the Congressman’s popularity at national conservative media news outlets, where he regularly appears. But most responsible for Meuser’s rise this year as a favorite for the nomination is his close allyship with President Donald Trump, who pledged his endorsement of Meuser during a late-May speech at a steel plant near Pittsburgh.
During the speech, Trump told Meuser, who was in attendance with other Republican officials, “If that’s your decision, you’ve got my support, you know that.”
Meuser first said he was considering a gubernatorial run in late 2024. He has since stepped up his criticism of the likely Democratic candidate, Shapiro. In April, after after an arsonist allegedly set fire to the Governor’s Residence in Harrisburg, Meuser made comments suggesting Shapiro’s anti-Trump rhetoric was to blame.
Prior to Meuser expressing interest in running for governor, Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity was seen as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Garrity rallied widespread support and won her 2024 re-election by a large margin. But during the campaign, Garrity walked back previous comments suggesting the 2020 presidential election was stolen. That likely hurt her chances of receiving an endorsement from Trump, who continues to deny the 2020 election results. And it could cost her support from MAGA voters in the primary election.
At Kalshi, users can bet on the GOP nomination outcome in the Who will be the Republican nominee for Governor? market. Given Meuser’s frequent and vocal support of Trump policies, the Congressman has had the best odds of winning the nomination since the market opened in April. Meuser had 54% odds for several weeks, but then they dropped to 46% after Trump’s public words of encouragement in late May.
On June 11, Meuser’s odds soared to 76%, perhaps in response to the Congressman’s full-throated support of Trump’s move to send National Guard troops into Los Angeles amidst immigration policy protests.
Garrity’s odds at Kalshi to win the nomination have remained static at 22%. State Sen. Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for PA governor in 2022, is the only other potential 2026 candidate with odds above 1%; as of June 12, Kalshi traders were giving him a 5% chance of earning the nomination again.
The Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial nominee will be decided in a primary election, likely in May of 2026.
Kalshi famously allows U.S. users to trade on election outcomes. Prediction markets received tons of media attention after the 2024 presidential election, after traders on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi accurately predicted Trump’s clear win, despite polling that showed a much closer race.
Kalshi is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which allows its prediction markets to be available to individuals in all 50 states. Under the Biden administration, the CFTC challenged Kalshi’s right to offer markets for U.S. elections. Kalshi won the case in the courts, but the CTFC appealed. In May, the CFTC dropped its appeal.
To trade on Kalshi election markets like the one for who will be the Republican nominee for governor in Pennsylvania, Kalshi users select a candidate, choose a position (“Yes” or “No”) and then buy event contracts, which are priced between 1-99 cents. For each contract purchased, the trader receives $1 in return if their candidate wins. The pricing of contracts is based on the candidate’s odds, which themselves are based on trading volume favoring the position.
For example, if you were to buy $100 worth of “Yes” contracts at 76 cents a piece in favor of Meuser earning the Republican nomination in Pennsylvania, and he ends up getting the nod after the primary election, you’d receive a $129 payout, for a $29 profit.
While no one has officially registered to run for Pennsylvania governor in the 2026 elections, it is widely believed that Shapiro will run for re-election as the Democratic nominee. Shapiro’s approval ratings have stayed strong and he’s often mentioned in conversations about who will be the Democratic nominee in the 2028 presidential election. (At Kalshi, he has the fourth best odds in the “Democratic nominee in 2028?” market.)
Who the Republican nominee will be in the PA gubernatorial race may not matter. In the Kalshi market for which party will win the governorship in 2026, as of June 12, the Democratic nominee had a 91% chance of winning.
That means that if Shapiro runs for reelection, he will likely win, according to Kalshi traders. Democrats have been performing well in non-presidential election years in the politically purple state. But anything could happen between now and the next gubernatorial election.
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