Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the NBA Finals MVP? Prediction markets say yes
Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is heavily favored to claim the Finals MVP trophy
After winning the league MVP and Western Conference finals MVP honors, is the Oklahoma City Thunder’s star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also likely to add an NBA Finals MVP trophy to his mantel? Going into the 2025 championship series against the Indiana Pacers, which kicks off Thursday, the odds are in his favor.
After a spectacular regular season and dazzling performance in the NBA playoffs so far, Gilgeous-Alexander is heavily favored to win the NBA Finals MVP at sportsbooks. SGA is also the clear frontrunner at prediction market platforms like Kalshi, which recently added an NBA Finals MVP market in which users can trade on various MVP candidates for a chance to win real money.
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Just a few days prior to the start of the NBA Finals, Kalshi added the new Finals MVP market. SGA opened with an 82% chance of winning the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP Award. Those odds, which are based on Kalshi users’ trades, have fluctuated slightly over the ensuing days, getting as low as 76% and as high as 85%. But as of the morning of the NBA Finals Game 1 showdown, the odds resettled back to 82%.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP odds are far better than any other player entering Game 1. Pacers hero Tyrese Haliburton is the next closest, with just a 12% chance of winning. No other player even had double-digit odds as of Thursday morning.
It’s pretty obvious why Gilgeous-Alexander is so overwhelmingly favored. The league and conference playoff MVP honors were well-earned, as he led the league in scoring during the regular season, averaging 32.7 points per game, and was crucial in the Western Conference series against Minnesota, averaging 31.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game.
It also helps that he plays on a really good team. The Thunder’s 68 regular-season wins was tops in the league and their average margin of victory of 12.87 points per game was the highest in NBA history. OKC is also heavily favored to win the NBA Finals, with an 86% likelihood in Kalshi’s championship winner market.
Only one player from a losing team (the Lakers’ Jerry West in 1969) has ever won the NBA Finals MVP. So with the Thunder being heavily favored to win the finals, it makes sense that Kalshi traders would lean into their best player winning the MVP, as well.
To trade in Kalshi’s MVP market, users need to merely choose a player and then pick a position. If you want to pick SGA to win, you’d purchase “Yes” contracts in his market. With an 82% chance of winning, you would then decide how many “Yes” contracts you’d like to purchase at 82 cents a piece. Each winning position contract pays out $1.
So there isn’t a ton of value taking Gilgeous-Alexander to win. If you purchased $100 worth of “Yes” contracts and he wins MVP, you’d profit $20 (plus get your $100 back).
If you think he won’t win, but don’t want to bet on a different player, you could buy “No” contracts on his market at 19 cents a share. A hundred dollars’ worth of “No” shares would earn you a $398 profit if SGA failed to secure MVP honors.
Based on the odds, every other player in the NBA Finals is basically a longshot to win MVP. That means that if SGA doesn’t manage to win and you pick the right prediction at current odds, you would see big returns.
You could buy contracts for Haliburton to win it for 12 cents a piece and turn a $684 profit on $100 worth of shares if he does.
An even more interesting prospect is Haliburton’s Pacers teammate, Pascal Siakam, who has the third-best odds of winning MVP. The star forward is Indiana’s leading scorer and rebounder and Siakam was spectacular in the Eastern Conference finals, for which he won MVP honors over Haliburton.
Siakam has just 4% odds of winning the NBA Finals MVP, meaning you could turn $100 into $2,342 if you pick him and he wins.
Of course, the current MVP odds at Kalshi will likely change once the NBA Finals start and as they progress. Things like injuries, ruts or a player stepping up big time will see the odds in the MVP go up and down. At Kalshi, you can watch the odds fluctuate in real time, which is great for deciding when to buy or sell shares.
A great example of a pre-Finals MVP favorite ultimately not winning occurred just last year. Going into the 2024 NBA Finals (and throughout much of the regular season), the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum was the MVP favorite at sportsbooks, followed by the Mavericks’ Luka Doncic. But Tatum’s teammate Jaylen Brown was exceptional in the finals and surged to become the favorite after Game 3, in which he scored 30 points. After a less than stellar Game 4 performance, after which his odds dropped, Brown bounced back in the series-clinching Game 5 and ultimately was awarded the MVP trophy.
Trade on the NBA Finals at Kalshi for a chance to win real money.
