Turn your music knowledge into real money by betting on future outcome predictions
Prediction market platforms like Kalshi let users bet on music outcomes like chart performance and award show winners
Music fans often debate which songs will become the next big hit. Now, with prediction market platforms like Kalshi, U.S. residents can put their music knowledge to work by trading on everything from chart predictions to award show outcomes. It's a new opportunity for music enthusiasts and young traders to turn their passion into potential profit.
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Whether it’s trading on Miley Cyrus's new album’s performance on the Billboard charts, betting on the day's top Spotify song, or predicting BET Award winners, Kalshi offers a great way to join other music lovers already trading.
If you’re not familiar with Kalshi, don’t worry — you’re not alone. Kalshi is one of the most popular prediction market platforms. CFTC-regulated, Kalshi lets users in all 50 states trade on a wide range of markets legally. In contrast, some other platforms, such as Polymarket, aren’t accessible to Americans.
There is a wide variety of Kalshi markets related to music, including:
• Spotify streams
• Billboard chart performance
• Will an artist release an album this year?
• Award shows like the Grammys and the American Music Awards
• Album and song release dates
With this variety of markets, almost anyone can find a music market that relates to something they are passionate about. If you love Broadway, there are markets for the Tony Awards. If you like hip-hop, there are markets about when Lil Wayne will release his next album. With new markets being added almost daily, you can always find something that aligns with your interests.
To keep things simple, let’s take an example like Kalshi’s 2026 Grammy Song of the Year market. If Doechi’s “Anxiety” sits at a forecasted chance of 45%, you can pay 45 cents a share if you believe the song will be nominated.
If you think the chances are lower, you can buy a “No” share for 55 cents. When you buy a “Yes” share, you increase the forecasted odds, and the opposite is true for the “No” share.
If your prediction is proved right, you will get $1 for every share you bought. If you bought 10 “Yes” shares at the price of 45 cents each, you will make $10 for a $5.50 profit.
For all of the music markets at Kalshi, there are specific strategies that can be used to inform your predictions. You don’t want to blindly try to predict these markets, because most of us lack a good understanding of the subject without thorough research.
For example, when examining the weekly Spotify streams of a song, several resources should be considered. If you are predicting a weekly chart, you can explore the daily charts and how the song is performing in terms of its ranking.
Moreover, you can use a resource like Kworb to view daily streaming data and determine if the trajectory is increasing or decreasing. This can help you calculate the streams it will reach at its current rate.
If you’re looking at Billboard markets, you can look at an artist’s past Billboard chart history. Do they have many past No. 1s? How likely is their album to reach No. 1 if all their singles from it performed poorly on the Billboard Hot 100?
You can also look at the song’s competition. If it’s being released at the same time as another major artist, this can drastically affect its performance.
Lastly, you can learn from experts and others to see what their predictions are. Billboard, Rolling Stone, and other music publications often write about new releases. Additionally, Twitter user @talkofthecharts frequently posts Billboard chart predictions.
The potential wins on Kalshi are not theoretical. They are real and create opportunities for music fans to capitalize on their knowledge.
One user made over $2,000 after correctly predicting Billie Eilish as the Artist of the Year winner at the 2025 American Music Awards.
Impressive win from last night at the AMAs 🔥
1% chance that paid $2,615 🤯 pic.twitter.com/pQ0cdStuBM
But you also don’t have to bet large amounts. You can trade at lower price points and win smaller amounts, like one user who who won $20 and $55 betting on the 2025 Grammys
I WON ALL MY KALSHI BETS pic.twitter.com/BCBumNZhLT
With music prediction markets still relatively new, knowledgeable fans have opportunities to capitalize on their insights before these markets become oversaturated. Whether you're tracking chart trajectories or predicting award winners, your musical expertise could translate into real profits on platforms like Kalshi.
