Aug 22, 2024; Chicago, IL, USA; Sen. Bob Casey, D-Penn., speaks during the final day of the Democratic National Convention at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasper Colt-USA TODAY ORG XMIT: USAT-895108 (Via OlyDrop)
Buckle up — the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race just got more interesting. Prediction electing betting markets, like Kalshi, are heavily forecasting a Bob Casey win in the PA Senate race.
Kalshi, a federally-regulated prediction market, is accepting trades on the Pennsylvania Senate race between Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Casey and his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick. And the market is singing a much different tune than what polls are currently showing.
You can bet on the race with Kalshi. Sign up with Kalshi right here to get a $20 bonus with your first $100 deposit.
[Read our full Kalshi review]
A recent Franklin & Marshall College poll shows Casey leading McCormick 49% to 48% among likely voters. Among registered voters, it is McCormick who leads Casey 49% to 42%.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Casey with a narrowing 3.2-point margin as of Oct. 27, making the race tighter than ever. In April, shortly after McCormick won the Republican primary, Casey led by as much as seven points.
With McCormick gaining ground, The Cook Political Report changed its PA Senate forecast from “Democratic lean” to “toss-up.”
While polls show Casey and McCormick neck and neck for the coveted PA Senate seat, prediction markets are singing a different tune.
According to bettors on Kalshi, Casey remains a sizeable favorite, despite McCormick’s momentum in polling.
Odds favor incumbent Casey:
• Bob Casey: 68% (-213)
• Dave McCormick: 32% (+213)
Note: Kalshi’s PA Senate race odds are subject to change
Here’s what you need to know about the race dynamics and Kalshi betting odds if you’re thinking about getting in on the action.
Betting odds showed a closer race last week on Oct. 22, when Casey’s price shortened to 64¢. On prediction market platforms, election “odds” are represented as prices, similar to a company in the stock market. In this case, the “stocks” are senate candidates McCormick and Casey, who are priced at 68¢ and 32¢, respectively. Moreover, there’s no “oddsmaker,” per se; instead, odds/prices are determined strictly by supply and demand within the market. What does this mean? If you buy 100 Casey contracts to win at 68¢, you'll invest $68, with a potential payout of $100—netting a $32 profit.
Political betting analyst Chris Gerlacher thinks there’s betting value on McCormick right now.
“McCormick is the attractive buy in this market. If the race remains tight, McCormick’s price will increase, and traders will be able to flip McCormick contracts before the election is called,” Gerlacher says on PredictionNews.
PA Democratic Sen. John Fetterman has also acknowledged the close race, calling it a “coin toss.”
If it really is, as polls indicate, then Gerlacher is right: there is value on McCormick, in which a bet on the Republican pays out more than 2-to-1 at his 32¢ price.
As the croupier would say: Place your bets, ladies and gents.
Kalshi, which won a court ruling earlier this month, is legal and regulated to accept "bets" on the PA Senate race.
In reality, these are considered futures contracts and are regulated as such.
You can check out Kalshi here to bet on the PA Senate race.
Access Media may receive compensation for users who sign up for Kalshi using our links.
