Eric Hartline
Juan Soto will celebrate his 26th birthday Friday by playing in Game 1 of the World Series with the New York Yankees. But after his dramatic three-run home run helped the Yankees to ice the ALCS, the vultures have hardly been able to contain themselves.
Soto is going to be a free agent after this season, and while it feels really difficult to imagine that the Yankees — the franchise most notorious with spending money on star players — would let him leave, they won't be running unopposed in the free-agent sweepstakes for the superstar slugger.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported back in September that "baseball executives" believe that five teams will make bids on Soto — the Yankees, Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets and San Francisco Giants.
Ken Rosenthal had interesting thoughts about Soto's free agency on the latest episode of "Fair Territory."
"I see Juan Soto going for the highest offer," Rosenthal said. "He's been pointing towards this moment, right? He turned down — a few years back, from the Nationals — $440 million over 15 years. Not a great AAV. Great guarantee, at the time. And I expect that he's going to want to beat Ohtani's present-day value, which is somewhere in the high 40s. He's going to want $50 million a year present-day value, and he's going to want it over a long period.
"That's why you're hearing talk of $500 million, $600 million," Rosenthal continued. "It's realistic, based on where people think this is going."
Rosenthal seemed to indicate that if anyone is going to outbid the Yankees for Soto, he would guess it will be the Mets.
"So, will it be the Mets, will it be the Yankees, will it be some other team? I don't know," Rosenthal admitted. "You can argue, as Yankee fans have, that they cannot afford to lose Juan Soto. Well, they can afford to lose him, the franchise is not going to crumble. But, they are certainly, as we have seen, a much better team with Soto and Judge than with just Judge and Stanton alone, or something like that.
"That said, if Steve Cohen, the owner of the New York Mets, really wants Soto, is he going to be out-bid by Hal Steinbrenner? I would tend to doubt it."
“I see Juan Soto going to the highest bidder” - @Ken_Rosenthal on latest episode of Fair Territory
What are you willing to give, excluding limbs, Juan Soto to get him in Philadelphia?pic.twitter.com/zssCqbaHGz
First of all, while Cohen is worth $21.3 billion according to Forbes, the ghost of George Steinbrenner may come back and haunt his son if he gets outbid for a 26-year-old free agent who has all-but cemented his place in Cooperstown and has proven to be a great fit in pinstripes. It would obviously be particularly problematic if the Yankees were outbid by New York's other team. It would be the type of thing that would change the perception of the Yankees organization, probably knocking them off the pedestal of being seen as the sport's biggest superpower.
It is interesting, though, one of the strongest arguments that the Yankees can make to Soto is that his earning potential off the field will be exponentially higher in New York than it would be anywhere else. Well, the Mets aren't the Yankees, but at last check, they are also in New York. It would be harder to make the off-field earnings potential argument if the chief competition for the Yankees is the Mets.
Of course, there is hope in these parts that the Phillies will make a competitive offer for Soto. Obviously, it makes sense to be involved. Who knows, maybe Soto will be really intrigued by reuniting with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner. But just by being involved, you help to push up the final total value for the contract. That's something that will be appreciated by Soto's agent, Scott Boras. It also may mean that the Yankees or Mets aren't in on another future free agent the Phillies want to sign.
From here, it's still hard to see Soto playing for someone other than the Yankees next season. But is there a number that Cohen, John Middleton or someone could get to where Steinbrenner would tap out? Given who his father is, that would be hard to imagine. But it's worth finding out.
