Bill Streicher
Your break from insanity is over. Welcome to the 2024-25 Sixers season. Heading into the opener against the Milwaukee Bucks, I give you five predictions for the season.
And much like those Lakers, there will be a large disparity in games played by the two teammates. Elgin Baylor averaged more than 38 points per game in 48 contests. Jerry West averaged almost 31 points across 75 games.
Tyrese Maxey, barring the unforeseen, should play at least 70 games. Joel Embiid...who knows?
We all know what Embiid is capable of. Breaking the 30-point mark has become the standard rather than the exception for him. This one is more about Maxey.
Originally, this prediction was going to be that Maxey leads the team in scoring. When push comes to shove, I'm not sold that Embiid will so easily and willingly defer to let Maxey be the team's lone Batman.
The prediction transformed into the duo combining to average 60 points per game. Upon further review, they did that last season.
So, I landed on this admittedly lofty prediction.
Reese Strickland-Imagn ImagesMaxey averaged a shade below 26 points per game last season.
I was anticipating an improved knack for drawing fouls. If it's there, it certainly did not present in preseason.
But, he has a year of experience as a lead ball-handler. He got stronger this summer. He seems to have smoothened some rough edges to his midrange game. And, if anything, the preseason saw an improvement in shot quality.
He attempted 6.5 threes per game across the four contests he played. In the two games in which he logged more than 20 minutes, Maxey averaged eight three-point attempts.
To be clear, a four-point-per-game jump is not small. But, more strength, more confidence in the midrange and more threes. Why would anyone put a ceiling on Maxey's next leap when he's outplayed projections in each of the past three seasons?
This is mostly a matter of evaluating three-point shooting (spacing) and the best use of Oubre's skills.
Oubre shot 31.5% on pull-up threes last season, per NBA.com. He shot 31.2% on catch-and-shoot threes.
Oubre shot almost 38% on threes when Embiid was on the court, according to PBPStats. He connected on just 28% when Embiid was off the court.
Embiid is the only entity making him a passable three-point shooter on this team. There are other options on the roster to space the floor. They are more adept from distance.
Mike Watters-Imagn ImagesFurthermore, the Sixes have the means to make a big splash at the trade deadline if they so choose. That player could bump Oubre from the starting five if he hasn't already been re-assigned to the bench.
If Nick Nurse and company do decide to move Oubre to the bench. That three-point efficiency with Embiid on the floor fits quite well when piecing together lineups staggering the stars with the bench. On top of that, Oubre has the right bold confidence to be a reserve spark plug if he buys into coming off the bench.
In fairness, Yabusele had a very strong preseason shooting the ball. 44.4% from deep is outstanding. But, three attempts per game is not exactly distinguished volume.
Ultimately, I look at the shot and the adjustment to the further three-point arc and find it easier to imagine it not translating than it being a clean transition to the NBA depth.
Bill Streicher-Imagn ImagesBut, Yabusele doesn't have to be even an average three-point shooter for this signing to be a good value at the veteran minimum price.
He showed some other offensive skills in preseason, like finishing over smaller players in the paint and making sharp passes on the move. He also defended at the rim quite well, knowing to contest with arms extended up and giving a bit of body pressure rather than reaching. There's no cause for concern with him defending power forwards. He has the body for it. But, he can also play some center in certain situations.
If even just some of that pans out, that's bang for your buck.
It might be difficult to picture with the franchise player sidelined for the season-opener and on an ambiguous plan for managing his body throughout the season. It might be even more difficult to imagine when the Sixers tip-off on Wednesday with both Embiid and Paul George sidelined.
But, what if the Sixers' health plan actually works?
The Knicks are super thin after a pair of blockbuster trades this past offseason and a slew of injuries to their remaining depth. I don't particularly trust that they have the requisite shot creation amongst and beyond Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges to make up for the depth they sacrificed. Towns is also almost the opposite of the identity that made the sum of the Knicks' parts greater than the individual pieces last season.
I'm just not sure.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Cavaliers were not particularly close to the Boston Celtics in the playoffs last season, with and without Donovan Mitchell. All they really did this summer was re-up Mitchell. So, unless they finally choose a direction with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, why is this season going to end differently than the last two did?
The Orlando Magic - no, not the Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat or Indiana Pacers - might be the biggest, most realistic threat to a healthy Sixers team in a seven-game series. They added shooting this offseason. Paolo Banchero is awesome. They have bigs that can make you guard beyond the paint. Their defense should be fantastic.
But, again, what if the Sixers' health plan actually works?
They upgraded from a crippling salary to a legitimate star forward and almost completely reconfigured their depth.
So, what if the Sixers' health plan actually works?
Well, rejoice, Philadelphia. The season isn't ending in the second round.
Consider this observation from our story on the Sixers' final preseason game:
"As good as Andre Drummond will be filling in for Joel Embiid, the Magic are one of the matchups that pose problems for Philadelphia's defense because of the types of players Drummond has to defend. Paolo Banchero functions as a big. Wendell Carter Jr. is the acting center, but he can shoot and attack closeouts.
Carter gave Drummond a fit early in the game, blowing by him on the perimeter for a finish at the rim. Banchero made quick work of him with a behind-the-back dribble to burst past Drummond into space.
Drummond is going to be more than passable in the regular season just by dominating the glass. He's looked really active and aware on defense around the rim, too, blowing up high passes in the paint often in the preseason. But, he just cannot guard in space.
It's going to make him a liability in the playoffs, and the Sixers don't have a clear solution for how to counter matchups that expose that issue. Perhaps it's Guerschon Yabusele playing more minutes at the five. Perhaps it's KJ Martin and Yabusele teaming up to offer size in small ball lineups. But, there's no clear fix there."
The Celtics only amplify that concern about Drummond. And they all can shoot. Prolifically. A healthy Embiid is easily the best player in that series. You'll have a chance because of him. But, it's those haunted minutes during which he's on the bench that will spell trouble once again if the current group is backing Embiid up in the playoffs.
