Rick Osentoski
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer both rose to prominence on Detroit Tigers teams built by Dave Dombrowski. Could the Phillies' president of baseball operations try to reunite with one of the two future Hall of Famers this offseason?
MLB Trade Rumors released their free-agent predictions this week, projecting that Verlander will sign a one-year/$12 million deal, while Scherzer will land a pact that pays him $16 million for next season.
Interestingly, some of the MLBTR staffers predicted that the Phillies will sign one of the two. Tim Dierkes and Anthony Franco both picked the Phillies to sign Verlander. Steve Adams has the Phillies landing Scherzer.
Verlander — who will turn 42 in February — struggled across 17 starts with the Houston Astros this past season, posting a 5.48 ERA over 90 1/3 innings. His second stint with the Astros appears to be over as he was left off the ALWCS roster. The former AL MVP admitted he came back from a neck injury too soon, but said that "I do feel like I have a lot more to give pitching-wise."
The three-time AL Cy Young Award winner has talked in the past of wanting to pitch into his mid-40s. He's 38 wins away from 300. He was still a very effective pitcher as recently as 2023, posting a 3.22 ERA across 27 starts split between the New York Mets and Astros.
Dombrowski selected Verlander with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2004 MLB Draft out of Old Dominion. There's a lot of respect between the two, which was on display during media day at the 2022 World Series:
Phillies exec Dave Dombrowski interrupts Verlander’s press conference and jokingly asks him where he got his start. Dombrowski was with the Tigers when Verlander broke in with the Tigers.
“He’s still wearing the same cologne, by the way,” Verlander said. pic.twitter.com/RnrtPmebzR
Meanwhile, 2024 was kind of a lost season for Scherzer. He posted a 3.95 ERA, but did so over just nine starts. The three-time Cy Young Award winner had back surgery in December of 2023 to help fix a herniated disk, and didn't make his season debut until June 23. He also had IL stints for right shoulder fatigue and a left hamstring strain. He had been remarkably durable in his career prior to 2024, and unsurprisingly said he wants to return for an 18th MLB season and believes he'll have better success in 2025 considering he's entering the offseason healthy.
Scherzer began his career with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but it was during his five seasons in Detroit that he emerged as one of the game's elite starters. Scherzer was an All-Star in 2013 and 2014, his final two seasons with the Tigers. He won the AL Cy Young Award in 2013, a year after he helped the Tigers to win the AL pennant.
Of course, most of Scherzer's peak years came with the Washington Nationals. Dombrowski and the Tigers offered him a six-year/$144 million extension prior to the 2014 season, which he rejected. That led to a public back-and-forth between the Tigers and Scherzer's agent, Scott Boras. He departed in free agency after the 2015 season for a seven-year/$210 million deal with the Nationals, a deal that paid him more than the Tigers offer but did include some deferred money.
It's unclear what terms Dombrowski and Scherzer are on today. Clearly, Scherzer made the right decision to bet on himself, and the Nationals reaped the benefits, winning a World Series in 2019. It's been nearly a decade since Scherzer left Detroit, and he's proven to be one of the greatest businessmen in MLB history, with Spotrac estimating his career earnings at over $314 million. Scherzer has been something of a mercenary in his career, so for the right offer, he'd probably get over any ill will he may still have.
With all this acknowledged, the guess here is that it will prove to be a moot point. Barring something shocking, the first four spots in the starting rotation for the 2025 Phillies are accounted for with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez. There's a need for additional depth at the No. 5 spot, as the second half of the 2024 season showed. But No. 1 prospect Andrew Painter — who has drawn some comparisons to Verlander in the past — is coming. He's got a 2.08 ERA across 13 innings in the Arizona Fall League. The Phillies aren't going to block him with a future Hall of Famer, especially one that's going to command in excess of $10 million and is uncertain to hold up physically at this stage.
That doesn't mean the Phillies should just cross their fingers that some combination of Painter and Taijuan Walker will be enough in the final spot of the rotation. But they're going to have trouble convincing anyone with a guaranteed MLB offer elsewhere to sign on the dotted line, because in the best-case scenario for the Phillies, Painter will be their fifth starter for a decent chunk of the season.
