Apr 12, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) reacts after hitting a single against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports Kyle Ross
Every Tuesday, On Pattison's Tim Kelly and Anthony SanFilippo will answer your questions from social media pertaining to the Phillies. Let's get to it.
@MarkMckn84 on Threads: I know the arguments for and against Schwarber leading off. Yes they win regular season games with it. Will the Phillies and Schwarber finally do the right thing and put him in a better spot to produce runs with his homers? 26 of his 38 homers were with the bases empty.
@NePhillyChuck38 on X: Is there ANY possibility that this Schwarber leading off thing comes to an end this coming season? How much longer are they going to relegate their best slugger to hitting solo shots two-thirds of the time?
Tim Kelly: Is it already time for my least favorite debate in the world?
It is funny that people convinced themselves after the playoff exit that Schwarber leading off was one of the biggest things that needed to change. He led off Game 1 against the Mets with a home run. He set a new MLB regular-season record with 15 leadoff home runs last year. He even raised his batting average to .248 while still walking an NL-best 106 times. If Schwarber leads off to start 2025, that would be fine, in my opinion.
KYLE. SCHWARBER. 💣
pic.twitter.com/X4Dqfbi5a3
With that said, manager Rob Thomson opened the door for Schwarber to be moved out of the leadoff spot in his season-ending press conference. And without a ton of change to the offensive personnel, I think there's a good chance that the Phillies open the season with either Bryson Stott or Trea Turner leading off, and Schwarber hitting cleanup.
Whether that will still be the arrangement on July 4 or not is a different discussion.
Anthony SanFilippo: I thought with Howard Eskin being let go by WIP that this argument was going to go away. Alas, here we are... again. So, one more time, in 2024, and with feeling... Kyle Schwarber is the best option to lead off for the Phillies not named Bryce Harper, and since Harper doesn't like to lead off, there's no better option.
I won't rehash the same stats Tim did, but let me throw a couple more things at you.
One of the most consistent arguments I hear from fans is that, yeah, Schwarber gets on base, but he gums up the basepaths because he's too slow. That's a fallacy.
Schwarber scored a career-high 110 runs last season. He became just the 10th active player to have at least 100 runs scored in three consecutive seasons. The only other player to do it the last three seasons is Marcus Semien. So, Schwarber is doing what all other leadoff guys are trying to do. Getting on base and scoring runs.
But he's so slow it prevents the guys behind him from scoring, too!
Oh, yeah?
Trea Turner scored 102 runs in 2023 and would have topped 100 runs again last season had he not missed 41 games (He scored 88 times). Harper has scored 84 and 85 runs respectively the last two years, and he missed the entire first month of 2023 and also missed 17 games last season. So, he's not preventing them from scoring.
The other argument is that as a power bat, he should be in the middle of the lineup to drive in more runs.
This is an argument born from a fanbase that grew up watching National League baseball when pitchers batted. It's a different world with the DH. It didn't make sense to have a power hitter leading off when guys at the bottom of the lineup couldn't get on base. But now, with the DH, it makes all the sense in the world.
Consider:
In 2008, Phillies pitchers, batting ninth, hit .125 with a .179 on base percentage. They reached base safely 58 times and ended up scoring 15 runs. Jimmy Rollins didn't have a lot to work with when he was leading off, eh?
In 2024, Johan Rojas, Garrett Stubbs or whoever hit ninth may not have inspired much confidence offensively, but the Phillies No. 9 hitters hit .230 with a .279 on base percentage, reached base safely 170 times and scored 72 runs. Think there's more opportunities for Schwarber there than Rollins? It's why he also had 104 RBIs each of the past two seasons as a leadoff hitter.
It's a no-brainer to lead off a guy who is both someone who gets on base and can be a run producer. It's why Harper should be the guy, but doesn't want to be. Maybe that's what Thomson meant at that press conference Tim referenced when he was saying some guys might need to change their approach to improve the lineup. If you are flipping Harper there and dropping Schwarber to cleanup, you get no argument form me. But, in lieu of that, Schwarber should stay put because there is no one else who fits the need.
@Kevin_Seamus on Threads: What kind of parallels can we draw from the 1979 Phillies and the 2024 Phillies? Would Phillies fans today want to tear down the entire 79 roster after that disappointing season and wouldn’t that have been stupid?
Tim Kelly: This is an interesting question. Obviously, I wasn't alive in 1979, so perhaps I'm not the best person to answer it. But having learned Phillies history, I'll do my best to respond.
Mike Schmidt was still only 30 years old when the Phillies won the World Series in 1980. But Pete Rose was 39, Steve Carlton was 35, Tug McGraw was 35 and Larry Bowa was 34. This wasn't a new team on the block by the time they won in 1980 — they missed the playoffs in 1979 after three consecutive losses in the NLCS from 1976-1978.
The pessimist in you might wonder whether the 2025 Phillies could have a season like the 1979 Phillies where they disappoint and miss the playoffs. Although, there's way more playoff spots now.
If you're hoping for the optimistic view on the 2025 team, you could definitely look to the 1980 Phillies as a club who it took a while to finally get over the hump. Maybe the fourth trip to the postseason will be the charm for this era of Phillies.
Anthony SanFilippo: I was alive for 1979, although my first real recollections of sports as a kid started in 1980. But I think I know where you are heading here — that was an uber-talented team that just couldn't get over the hump and the final move was to replace the manager with a firebrand like Dallas Green to light a fire under their asses and get them playing to their potential in 1980. I don't see Thomson as a problem. If anything, I think he's an asset.
Are we going to question his in-game decisions at times? Sure. We do for every coach in every sport. It's part of the symbiotic relationship between fans, media and coaches/managers. But what gets forgotten, especially in baseball, which is the biggest grind of any of the sports, is how a manager manages his team away from the games is equally as important — if not more so — than picking the right reliever for a situation or knowing when to call for a hit and run.
That's where Thomson excels and is superb at his job. It's also a different era in 2024 2025. Today's athlete doesn't necessarily respond to that kind of screaming, in your face coaching style that spurred athletes to be better 45 years ago. Today's athlete responds best to getting individual needs met first. And Thomson is super proficient at both meeting those needs and protecting his players — and they love to play for him because of it.
@IronMan0753674 on X: Do you see the Phillies trading Alec Bohm for a better outcome after Bergman is signed somewhere and off the board? And if so, what scenarios? Thank you
Tim Kelly: It would make sense that Bohm's market might be more robust when Bregman comes off the board, although it's unclear when exactly it is that Bregman will sign. And the problem is that the Phillies have to backfill third base if Bohm is traded.
There just might not be enough time, which could mean the Phillies retain Bohm.
Dave Dombrowski on Alec Bohm: ‘I Think He’s Going To Come Out and Have a Tremendous Season’ @OnPattison https://t.co/TxRSICRddw
Certainly, there's way too much smoke for there to have been nothing to various trade rumors surrounding Bohm. And though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski downplayed it when I asked him earlier this month, I think it's fair to be a little skeptical about how Bohm will respond to an offseason of trade rumors. What if he gets off to a slow start and on April 15 fans boo him at Citizens Bank Park? Will things snowball? The Phillies better hope not.
But they are already over the $301 million luxury tax threshold, which comes with a 110% tax on all overages. I've advocated for Ha-Seong Kim as a signing, but are the Phillies going to trade Bohm — who is projected to make $8.1 million in arbitration — and then sign Kim for $10-$15 million? I would guess not.
Anthony SanFilippo: It's still December. There are still a lot of unsigned free agents. And yes, one signing does set off the dominoes for others at positions. It happens every year. So, there might be a reset of the Bohm market sometime between now and the start of Spring Training, but Tim is right, that time is starting to run short.
I agree with everything Tim wrote. The Phillies are really rolling the dice they get the positive response from Bohm after he was forced to spend an offseason living in the heart of Rumorville. Because the negative could be bad.
That said, it might be the Phillies best option to hold on to him at this point.
@Andrew_Ervin_ on Threads: Thanks for doing these. Are the Phillies listening to offers for Ranger? The Orioles seem like a good fit. Could you see them or anyone else making a move for him?
Tim Kelly: Dombrowski said that after the Phillies acquired Jesús Luzardo, teams called to inquire on their other starters. I think you can reasonably assume that other clubs view Suárez — who is entering a contract year and just hired Scott Boras — as the most likely arm they could pry away from the Phillies.
From @TimKellySports: Could The Phillies Now Trade From Starting Pitching Surplus?https://t.co/IL8X3BUyYW
But while I think the Phillies will listen on him, I'd be shocked if he's traded. The Phillies like the idea of having a surplus of starting pitchers, especially with Andrew Painter not likely to be in play until the summer. And I think the idea of having the option to shift Suárez to the bullpen for the postseason is a really good one.
Baltimore would be a great fit, but I'm not sure they make sense as a trade partner for the Phillies, who would likely want a Major League-ready player. The Orioles had a dreadful bullpen last year, filled with a lot of former Phillies castoffs. Unless they would be willing to trade closer Félix Bautista — who is coming back after missing all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery — I'm not sure there's really a fit between the two teams.
Anthony SanFilippo: The Phillies would be wise to get something for Suárez and not just let him walk away after the season in free agency, but they also have to consider the rationalization that they are trying to win a championship right now and that moving a trusted arm because they have a little depth is not the way to go.
Andrew Painter isn't going to start for the Phillies until at least late June or July. Until then, the rotation is set — and Suarez is part of it. Adding Joe Ross as a swing man was a savvy little move to pick up the slack if someone is hurt and Painter is not ready yet. But the Phillies don't want to be in the same position they were a season ago when they were a sub-.500 team when the No. 5 starter — whoever it was — took the mound.
Trading Suárez now puts them close to being in the same boat again.
And while he could possibly bring you something in return that is of value elsewhere — the back of the bullpen, or another bat — the starter depth is so very important to a team trying to win it all, that if you keep Suárez for 2025, and then he walks in free agency after the season, that's the cost of being a team who is in contention every year and it's worth it to have him be a part of the effort for one season.
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